In my last post, I hypothesized about shooting percentage deterioration now that Final Fours, and many regionals, have moved exclusively into domes, and now that the playing floor has been stationed squarely in the middle of the cavernous venue.
Well, voila, a story in today's Wall Street Journal confirms my speculation--three-point shooting percentage, in particular, is noticeably lower in the larger stadiums.
Through Saturday's games, the three-point percentage in Reliant Stadium, site of this year's Final Four, is .310 compared to a .344 average for Division-1 games this season. Now, there are certainly other factors at play--notably, the quality of defense played by the competing teams--but the trend line of past Final Fours would seem to indicate that this isn't a one-year phenomenon.
Last year, the sight lines at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis must have been good as the four teams shot .365 from three-point land versus a seasonal D-1 average of .342. That Final Four has been the exception. In 2009, the Final Four was at Ford Field in Detroit and the comparison was .330 to .342. In 2008, the difference was most acute as Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA combined for a .276 three-point shooting compared to the season average of .351. In 2007, it was .322 to .349 and in 2006 it was .292 to .348.
Collars tighten, defense is even more aggressive, and the stakes are obviously higher once teams advance to the Final Four. Yet, there is no denying that the venue and space used to seat 75,000 people makes a difference in the effectiveness of long-range shooting in these three games.
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