What to expect in Big 12 basketball

The non-conference games are almost complete, the various tournaments have been played, and there are a variety of surprises which have become headlines in the Big 12. Notably, Kansas State is ranked and much better than expected and Missouri is undefeated and off to its best start since the early 1980s.

Let's take a look at the local teams and what we should expect as conference play begins next week.

Kansas - The defending Big 12 champs for the past six years have been up-and-down, as expected, with the high point being a home victory over Ohio State and the low being a loss, at Sprint Center, to Davidson. It's always a habit with Kansas fans to compare the current KU squad with a past team, but this year's edition is unlike any in recent memory. This year's team seems to be most like the 2008-2009 Kansas squad which featured Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, and the Morris twins as freshmen. But, that team also had basketball savvy players like Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed who ensured good ball movement and minimal turnovers. The current Jayhawk team is loose with the ball, averaging 15.18 turnovers per game, has average ball movement, and has yet to get consistent bench play from Connor Teahan, Naadir Tharpe, Justin Wesley or Kevin Young.

What must happen if Kansas intends to win a seventh straight title: Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor must stay healthy, Taylor has to reduce turnovers, and Young must play like he did against Ohio State.

Prediction: The race for the Big 12 title still runs through Lawrence, KS, but it's hard to see this KU team beating Baylor for the league crown. Prediction--Second place in the Big 12 with a likely second round exit in the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas State - No one, and I mean no one, expected Kansas State to be 10-1 with the only loss a two-overtime thriller against future conference mate West Virginia. The Wildcats are getting surprising performances from Jordan Henriquez, Thomas Gipson, and Angel Rodriguez, to go with the expected leadership from Rodney Magruder and Jamar Samuels. Best win: A 13-point neutral site win over Alabama. Worst loss: The only one--against West Virginia in Wichita. Big game: The conference opener, in Lawrence, against Kansas on January 4 is an important "momentum" game for both teams.

Prediction: Kansas State is surprising everyone but can they contend for the league crown? It's hard to see the Wildcats finishing higher than fourth in the league. Look for KSU to make the NCAA Tournament and exit in the first round.

Missouri - Missouri wore the mantle of "most surprising" in the Big 12 until Kansas State won the Diamond Head Classic tournament this past week. The Tigers are undeafeated and are doing it without Lawrence Bowers, out for the year due to a pre-season injury. As expected, MU's guards are the team's engine but the play of Ricardo Ratliffe has been the key to the Tigers' success thus far--he's averaging 14.3 points and 6.9 boards per game. Marcus Denmon is having a league MVP type season and is complemented by Kim English (15.3 points per game) and Michael Dixon (13.1 points per game), plus Phil Pressey at the point. A good shooting team, Mizzou averages .519 in field goal percentage and shoots over 78% at the free throw stripe.

Prediction: Missouri is not a good rebounding team and lacks quality internal muscle, beyond Ratliffe. MU will be disadvantaged against a front line like Baylor's and has yet to face defensive-minded clubs like Kansas or Kansas State. Frank Haith's team will contend for the title but will finish tied for third. Look for MU to make the NCAA Tournament and exit in round two.