The college football season, at long last, is upon us. Let's take a quick look at Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri, all of whom open their seasons this Saturday at home.
Kansas:
The Jayhawks enter 2012 with one thought--"there's only one way to go from last season and that's up." KU was undoubtedly the worst defense team in FBS football in 2011, giving up over 516 yards per game. On offense, the Jayhawks were dead last in the Big 12 with a scoring average of 22.3 points per game.
Whether you like him or not, or question the hire or not, the arrival of Charlie Weis at Kansas, after the firing of Turner Gill, definitely improved the level of coaching in Lawrence. Skeptics would say, "sure--how could it be worse?" But, the Weis brand was able to lure in a coaching staff which included Dave Campo, former secondary coach at the Dallas Cowboys and well-traveled NFL coaching veteran, and Tim Grunhard, former Kansas City Chiefs lineman and a guy who immediately started recruiting Kansas City hard. Weis also brought back Clint Bowen, a defensive coach under Mark Mangino and a guy who is well-connected in the state of Kansas.
So, what will we get from the 2012 Jayhawks? The quarterbacking will be improved given the arrival of former Notre Damer, Dayne Crist, in Lawrence. Crist not only ups the talent level at this position but also brings a mature locker room presence and on-field leader. The offensive output for Kansas should improve immediately, what with Crist and a solid offensive line, complemented by a strong set of running backs. The receiver positions are well-stocked, particularly with the return of a healthy Daymond Patterson.
Defense is the big question, again. Fifth-year transfers and juco transfers are expected to help but this unit likely is far from being an average defense in the offensive-minded Big 12. Senior Toben Opurum is the guy most likely to contend for all-league honors on the defense.
So, do we buy, sell or hold on the Jayhawks? The schedule is tough but I say "hold" as this team has promise, and with the starters staying healthy and the transfers being as good as advertised, KU could potentially improve to a five-win season.
HOLD.
Kansas State:
Don't look to get any keen insight on this season's Kansas State Wildcats from Bill Snyder. Snyder, arguably the best college football coach at doing more with less, has mastered the art of not saying too much. Unfortunately for Snyder, the Wildcats surprised everyone last year so high expectations, and a preseason top 25 ranking, are a consequence of this success.
After a three-year bowl drought, KSU has gone to back-to-back bowls and almost made its way into the Big 12 title game last season. In five of their games (four of them wins), the deciding points were scored in the final four minutes of regulation or overtime.
Collin Klein returns and is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Klein, the running QB with the linebacker body and mentality, had 27 touchdowns last season, tying for the most ever from that position. But, Klein isn't the only weapon on offense--John Hubert will likely rush for over 1,000 yards this season and WR/KR Tyler Lockett is on most preseason All-American teams.
Arthur Brown anchors the KSU defense but that is the area of concern with this team. There are only two returning starters on the defensive line and the secondary loss some key contributors.
Will Kansas State be good? Absolutely. Will they equal last year's success? I don't think so. The 'Cats aren't going to sneak up on anyone and play many key games on the road--Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, TCU and Baylor. The Wildcats will be bowl eligible again but don't be surprised if the record is 6-6--the late season games in Ft. Worth and Waco are the ones which will determine how much success this KSU team will have in 2012.
My counsel is to "sell" on this season's Wildcats.
SELL.
Missouri:
If Kansas State is an enigma this season, then what's Missouri? The Tigers enter play in a new conference--the SEC, are unranked in the preseason for the first time in forever, and have a starting quarterback and running back coming back from injuries. Some predict that MU will finish behind Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee in the SEC East, while others predict a Missouri upset over Georgia on September 9.
We all can debate whether the move to the SEC was the right one for Mizzou but the reality is that all season tickets have been sold and interest has never been higher in the football program. The Tigers signed Dorial Green-Beckham, the nation's top-ranked wide receiver, during the spring recruitment period, and he should start immediately as a target for QB James Franklin, who's coming back from shoulder surgery. The running back position is in good shape if Henry Josey is healthy--he teams with Kendial Lawrence in MU's one-back set.
The defense is a question mark in the SEC given that it gave up 382 yards a game in 2011. While the Big 12 is an offensive-minded league, and thus that number may not be a surprise, I'm not sure it'll cut it in the new conference. There's only one returning starter on the defensive line but the linebacking crew is solid and E.J. Gaines leads the secondary.
MU's schedule will be one of the toughest in the country--Georgia and Arizona State at home, then a road game to South Carolina on September 22. On September 29, MU plays at Central Florida, which is game where the Tigers need to be careful of a letdown, before returning home against Vanderbilt. Alabama comes to Columbia on October 13; the Tigers play at Florida (November 3), Tennessee (November 10) and Texas A&M (November 24.)
What's the verdict on this year's Tigers? I say "hold" given the uncertainty about Franklin's health.
HOLD.
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