Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Breaking down the Big 12

- I suspect that Kansas coach Bill Self sent colleague Frank Martin a text or e-mail today, thanking Martin for the Kansas State win over Texas in Austin last night. The Wildcat victory means KU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 and controls its destiny with a Senior Night home game against Texas A&M tomorrow, and a Border War clash at Missouri on Sunday.

- Texas is not finishing the season with momentum heading into the conference tournament. The Longhorns are losers of three of their last four games and must journey to Waco on Saturday for a game against under-achieving Baylor. This is very much a "get well" game for the Bears who are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after tonight's loss at Oklahoma State. Even with a win over Texas, Baylor may need a tournament win in Kansas City to make it into the NCAA Tourney field of 68.

- Missouri has played itself out of a top four berth in the conference tournament. The Tigers lost tonight against Nebraska in Lincoln--their seventh conference road loss. MU, on the road, is losing by an average of eights points per game in conference. At home, the Tigers are winning by twice that margin--16 points per game.

- Texas A&M owns the tiebreaker advantage over Kansas State. I suspect that both teams will finish at 10-6 in the league but A&M will get the three seed and KSU the four seed. That means, like last year, that Kansas and Kansas State could face each other three times--twice in the regular schedule and once in the Big 12 tourney.

- Colorado has two very win-able games left--at Iowa State and at home against Nebraska--which could give the Buffs a 9-7 conference record and a 20 win season heading into the conference tournament.

- Kansas is not only #2 in the polls but also has the #2 RPI, following BYU. Texas has dropped to #13 in the RPI and Kansas State is #21. Following those three are Missouri, #28; Texas A&M, #30; then a big gap to Oklahoma State at #59; Baylor, #75; Colorado, #77; and Nebraska, #80.

- I don't want to state the obvious but Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Missouri are locks for the NCAA Tournament. Conventional wisdom is that six will go from the Big 12. Up until tonight, Baylor looked to be the sixth team with Colorado making a play as well. But, what of Nebraska? With recent wins against Texas and Missouri, the Cornhuskers are 7-8 heading to Colorado this weekend. Will an 8-8 record, coupled with a win in Kansas City next week, get them into the dance? Doc Sadler and crew have to be stewing about last Saturday's overtime loss at Iowa State. If the Huskers win that game, they could be firmly established as an NCAA participant.

- Who's your pick for Coach of the Year in the Big 12? Rick Barnes was the front-runner until a week ago. Tad Boyle is being mentioned given the job he's done in Boulder. And, Mark Turgeon deserves consideration for taking a less-than-talented Texas A&M team and placing them in the top four in the league. But, not surprisingly, the guy who gets my vote is Bill Self. Self lost two lottery picks and his captain and team leader from last year's conference champion and #1 NCAA Tournament seed. Yet, the Jayhawks have weathered those defections coupled with a star recruit who's only played in 17 games, injuries (Travis Releford, Thomas Robinson, Josh Selby), suspensions and family tragedy and are now in position to win their seventh consecutive Big 12 title.

- How about your first team All Big 12? My picks are Marcus Morris (Kansas), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Alec Burks (Colorado), Marcus Denmon (Missouri), and Jordan Hamilton (Texas.) Yes, I know most will put LaceDarius Dunn from Baylor on the first team but Denmon means more to Missouri than Dunn does to a disappointing Baylor team. Pullen weathered a trying first half of the year and is now averaging over 27 points a game in the 'Cats last five games--all victories.

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