Sunday, March 6, 2011

Breaking down the Big 12

- This is the last season of the current membership of the Big 12 conference. And, in the 15 seasons of Big 12 basketball, Kansas has won or shared 11 of the titles, including the past seven in a row. The longest stretch for KU without a title was 1999-2001, when Texas and Iowa State (twice) won the conference crown. Over the course of its conference dominance, Kansas went undefeated once, 15-1 three times, 14-2 four times, 13-3 twice, and 12-4 once.

- The Kansas City Star announced its All-Big 12 team, Most Valuable Player and Coach of the Year. I agree with the first team of Marcus Morris, Kansas; Jacob Pullen, Kansas State; Marcus Denmon, Missouri; Alec Burks, Colorado; and Jordan Hamilton, Texas. I also agree with Kansas' Bill Self as Coach of the Year. My one small beef is with the Star's pick for Player of the Year--Jacob Pullen. I would select Pullen as the MVP, given the value of his leadership and performance to Kansas State's late season surge. However, I'd select Marcus Morris as Most Outstanding Player given Morris' consistent performance throughout the Big 12 season and his status as the "go to" guy on the conference champion.

- How do you overcome 24 turnovers? If you're Kansas, one of the ways is to dramatically outrebound your opponent. In yesterday's KU-Missouri game, the Tigers forced 24 Jayhawk turnovers. Yet, Kansas pulled down 20 more rebounds than Missouri--a gap which was consistent with the difference in game one between the two teams. In the two games played between KU and MU this season, Kansas had 86 boards compared to Missouri's 48. Given Kansas's shooting average for the season, that equates to approximately 42 points.

- If today were Selection Sunday, the Big 12 would only get five teams in the NCAA Tournament--Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Missouri. Colorado, Nebraska are on the bubble and listed on Joe Lunardi's (ESPN) "last four out," as is Baylor. The Bears needed a win against Texas last night and now must win no less than three games in the Big 12 Tournament to get in. Colorado could get in with two tournament victories but that will require beating Kansas State in the quarterfinals.

- Speaking of Selection Sunday, how do the Big 12 tourney contenders rate in the various computer rankings through yesterday's games? The Sagarin rankings, which may be the best predictor of all, have the teams as follows: Kansas, #2; Texas, #8; Kansas State, #25; Missouri, #27; Texas A&M, #34; Nebraska, #55; Colorado, #56; and Baylor, #71. The RPI has Kansas, #1; Texas, #14; Kansas State, #19; Texas A&M, #30; Missouri, #31; Oklahoma State, #54; Nebraska, #72; Baylor, #76; and Colorado, #79.

- The Big 12 tournament has some interesting first round match-ups and potential quarterfinal match-ups. Kansas will face the winner of Nebraska-Oklahoma State, two teams which played KU tough during the regular season. Colorado must beat Iowa State in round one, if it hopes to advance to the NCAA, but then would face Kansas State. The likely scenario in the upper portion of the bracket is a semi-final game between KU and KSU. In the lower portion of the bracket, Missouri opens with Texas Tech, a team they beat by eight but who gave the Tigers a tough game in Columbia. Baylor opens with Oklahoma, a team they split with during the regular season. Look for the quarterfinals to feature a rematch of Baylor-Texas and Missouri advancing to play Texas A&M. My predicted semi-final games are Kansas-Kansas State and Texas-Missouri. In the final, I see KU with a revenge victory over Texas, the team which stopped the Jayhawks' 69 game home winning streak.

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