What match-ups are keeping you up at nights? Which eight versus nine seed game is causing you to scour BPIs, Sagarin Indexes and the latest Vegas line? What do you make of this Fab Memo thing with the 'Cuse anyway?
Let me break down what I see as the hardest selections to make in this 2012 edition of yet more March Madness. And, you can thank me later.
- If you were a 15 seed, which two seed would you most want to play? It makes no difference--a 15 has only beaten a two seed on four occasions in this tournament. So, please, all of you Jayhawk and Tiger fans--enough with the teeth gnashing as you'll advance just fine into the next round of NCAA action.
- The Vegas oddsmakers have Connecticut, a nine seed, and Alabama, another nine seed, projected to beat their eighth seeded opponents, Iowa State and Creighton. I'm buying the Alabama win; I'm not sure I am sold on UConn whipping the Cyclones.
- Watch out for Memphis--the Tigers are under-seeded as an eight.
- Upset special: Texas over Cincinnati.
- Best Thursday match-up: I'm looking forward to New Mexico and Long Beach State--"The Beach" is a good team who makes a habit of playing a tough non-conference schedule while New Mexico is the 20th rated team in the BPI.
- If Florida isn't hitting from outside, they will have a difficult time beating Virginia. The Cavaliers play a packed in defense and are second in the nation in scoring defense, trailing only Wisconsin. This is a game where Florida could get frustrated early and struggle.
- Beware of teams who over-achieved in their conference tournament. This means that picking Florida State to advance beyond a Sweet 16 match-up with Ohio State isn't smart.
- The BPI has St. Louis as the 15th strongest team in the nation. I'm not buying that and think that Memphis will win by six or more in that eight-nine game. Yes, I know it's Rick Majerus coaching against the boy wonder, Josh Pastner, but still...
- How do I have the Big 12 teams performing, you ask? Well, as noted above, I have both Missouri and Kansas advancing to the round of 32 as will Kansas State and Baylor. I think Texas will upset Cincinnati but that Iowa State will lose a close one to UConn.
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