Week five: College football predictions

Last week: 9-1
Season record: 40-10 (.800)

Texas Tech over Kansas. The Las Vegas bettors must know something I don't as the line here is only Tech by seven. Given how porous Kansas' defense was against Georgia Tech, it's hard to understand how Tech's offense won't light up KU. It's a huge understatement to say this is a pivotal game for KU--they're at home against an opponent who, at least before the season, seemed to be a possible "W." After this, the Jayhawks must journey to Oklahoma State and then play Oklahoma--a 2-4 record headed into the Kansas State game on October 22. Tech by 14.

Baylor over Kansas State. Who knew that the game of the week in the Big 12 this weekend would be the undefeated Baylor Bears versus Kansas State, fresh off their road upset of Miami. Baylor's offense, which has scored 154 points in three games, will be a huge test of KSU's D--the Bears are explosive and can score quickly. Conversely, they gave up 31 points to Rice in their last game. This will be a close one--Baylor by 4 on a late RGIII touchdown.

Iowa State over Texas. Here's your upset special of the week. This game is in Ames, Iowa State has been a surprise, and Texas could be looking ahead to OU next week. Plus, Texas was impressive in their last game over UCLA but still is a team looking to find itself a bit. Iowa State by three.

Texas A&M over Arkansas. This inter-conference game in Arlington previews a future SEC conference match-up. Both teams are coming off hard losses--Arkansas against Alabama and A&M against Oklahoma State, a game where they blew a huge lead at home. Arkansas, like OSU, can put up big numbers through the air but I suspect that A&M will bounce back with a four-point win.

Oklahoma over Ball State. The line is 37.5. I'd still take OU to cover the spread. Oklahoma by 38 in Norman.

Notre Dame over Purdue. The Irish win again against the Boilermakers--Notre Dame by 13.

Wisconsin over Nebraska. It's Nebraska's first conference game in the Big Ten and you'd better like the color red if you happen to be in Madison. It's the #7 Badgers versus the #8 Cornhuskers and, for NU, it's the chance to win a big game--something which hasn't happened much under Bo Pellini. For Wisconsin, it's an opportunity to stake their claim as the favorite to win the league. Wiscy by three.

TCU over SMU. Old Southwest Conference rivals do battle with rumors swirling that TCU may truly be a Big 12 expansion target, even though SMU is the school which has said "invite us and we'll come." TCU continues its recent dominance in this series with a 14 point win.

Navy over Air Force. Could these teams be headed to the Big East? That's another of the latest conference realignment rumors. Navy by three.

Ohio State over Michigan State. All the attention in the Big 10 will be focused on Nebraska-Wisconsin but this should be an interesting game as well. Ohio State by four.

Utah over Washington. Utah is hosting a Pac 12 game for the first time. The Utes will win this one by 10.

Game of the week--Alabama over Florida. Florida got whipped last year in Tuscaloosa and you can bet that Will Muschamp has reminded the Gators of that game all week. The sexy pick here is Florida but I'll go with Nick Saban over Muschamp's debut in this rivalry--Alabama by a touchdown.

Football rivalries and realignment

In an interesting twist of irony today, a front page Sports section headline from USA Today read "Emmert: Conference drama embarrassing." The story quoted NCAA president Mark Emmert who took to task 100 plus athletics directors who have gathered for meetings in suburban Dallas.

Next to the article was USA Today's regular "snapshots" feature, which today listed out the "most played Football Bowl Subdivision rivalries." Minnesota and Wisconsin have the most played rivalry, at 120 games, followed closely by Kansas-Missouri at 119, Kansas-Nebraska at 117, Texas-Texas A&M at 117, and North Carolina-Virginia at 116.

The irony, of course, is that the Kansas-Nebraska rivalry is no more, given NU's flight to the Big Ten, and the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry will likely go away as well due to A&M's acceptance into the SEC. Should Missouri follow A&M into the SEC, that would also likely stop the KU-MU "border war."

Seeing long-standing rivalries being tossed aside is, indeed, "embarrassing."

Layups, first downs and penalty flags

- Layup: Bill Self had to be squirming in his seat yesterday as the defensive-minded Kansas head coach saw little "D" on the floor at the Legends of the Phog game. The contest, in front of a standing-room only capacity crowd in Allen Fieldhouse, featured highlight reel dunks, Globetrotter-esque passes, and appearances by guys named Pierce, Chalmers, Rush, Collison, Valentine and others. The atmosphere was electric and the outcome perfect after Pierce and Chalmers made late threes to end the game in a 111-111 tie. As Self said in his pre-game address to the crowd, "Only at Kansas."

- First down: Robert Griffin III, Baylor's all-everything QB, is having a season which is the stuff of which legends are made. RGIII threw five touchdown passes against Rice and now has more TD passes this season than he does incompletions.

- Penalty flag: Minnesota pulled a Kansas yesterday--they were upset by North Dakota State. The Gophers fell, at home, to the same NDSU team who ruined KU's home opener last season.

- Layup: Speaking of Baylor, The Sporting News' preseason college basketball magazine has the Bears as the favorite to win the Big 12 followed by Kansas and Missouri.

- First down: I can't help but laugh at Direct TV's commercial featuring Deion Sanders where Deion, as the small football angel, says "slow your roll, baby" to the woman who thinks he's cute.

- Penalty flag: It was the "Hot Seat Bowl" and Mark Richt of Georgia beat fellow, much-criticized coach Houston Nutt of Mississippi. One has to believe that Nutt will be gone after this season and Richt may be there with him. Ole Miss is currently 1-3 and Georgia 2-2.

- Penalty flag: The uniqueness has worn off of Maryland's multi-uniform look. The Terps dropped their second straight game yesterday in a 38-7 rout at the hands of--get this--Temple.

- First down: And, on that note, Temple's Bernard Pierce had five TDs and 149 yards in the Owls' win.

Top college tailgates

Not only does the SEC know how to play football but, if you believe a magazine titled Tailgater Monthly, the conference schools also know how to party before, during and after the game.

SEC schools dominated the top 20 list of best tailgating venues. Tailgater Monthly had these nuggets for each experience:

1. Ole Miss: The Grove has been described as the "Holy Grail of Tailgating."

2. Florida: The stadium, the "Gator Chomp," and "it's Florida."

3. Clemson: "...located in the nation's barbecue belt." (Huh? Did the author ever visit Kansas City?)

4. Washington: "...much of the Husky tailgating scene takes place on water" given the stadium's proximity to Lake Husky.

5. Ohio State: "The tailgating scene is a sight to behold..."

6. Tennessee: "One part tailgating on water, one part smoky barbecue pit, and one part Southern hospitality."

7. LSU: "Night games at LSU rival the insanity that is common to Oakland Raider games."

8. Notre Dame: "Tailgating is a family event."

9. Auburn: "...fans take tremendous pride in the Auburn experience."

10. Oregon: "Remember to bring your rain gear when you come to Eugene..."

11. Alabama: "Pork barbecue...is practically the official food of Alabama."

12. Wisconsin: "Students and fans...don't tailgate as much as they front door-gate" given the proximity of Badger Stadium to the campus.

13. Texas: One of the friendliest tailgating venues, those in burnt orange often offer a beer and food to fans from opposing schools.

14. Arkansas: "...an Arkansas home game is a special experience."

15. Oklahoma: "No foie gras here. Just steaks, ribs, burgers, dogs, beer and a heck of a good time..."

16. Michigan: A diverse scene, from the "socioeconomic background of the fans to the physical terrain where they tailgate."

17. Colorado: "Part old west ruffian outpost, part granola munching hippie enclave..."

18. Penn State: The tailgating scene here is so "over the top" that school officials have banned the consumption of alcohol after kickoff.

19. Georgia: "Girls look damn good in red and black and tens of thousands of them are all over town on game day."

20. UCLA: The Rose Bowl--nuf sed...

Week four: College football predictions

Last week: 15-3
Season record: 31-9 (.775)

Kansas Jayhawks fans can breathe easy--KU has a "bye" week this weekend, so let's focus on the rest of the Big 12 and other key games across the country.

Oklahoma over Missouri: Missouri has not won in Norman since 1966. Oklahoma lost last year in Columbia. OU showed poise and confidence in pulling away from Florida State late in last week's 10 point win in Tallahassee. A MU win would be huge. It's not going to happen--OU by 18.

Miami over Kansas State: Another team coming off of a big win is Miami, 24-6 winners last week over Ohio State. Jacory Harris is back at QB for the Canes and the U's line, on both sides of the ball, will be too much for KSU. Miami by 17.

Game of the Day--Oklahoma State over Texas A&M: A&M is the home favorite in this battle of high-powered offense (Cowboys) versus stingy defense (Aggies.) OSU must establish enough of a run threat to open up their passing game, which is averaging 408 yards per game. Oklahoma State by two.

Baylor over Rice: It's an old Southwest Conference match-up but Rice will be no match for this newly revitalized Baylor program. The line is 20.5 but it'll be worse than that as Robert Griffin III continues his Heisman campaign--Baylor by 25.

Texas Tech over Nevada: Seth Doege completed 40 of 44 passes last week for Texas Tech, reminscent of Mike Leach's offenses in Lubbock. This one could get ugly--Tech by 21.

LSU over West Virginia: This could be a really interesting game. LSU travels to West Virginia to face a team they only beat by six last year in Baton Rouge. This will be a low-scoring game with LSU prevailing late...by six.

Clemson over Florida State: Don't underestimate how important last week's game against OU was to Florida State. It was a tough loss and Clemson, conversely, beat the defending national champion, Auburn, at home. Clemson's playing with confidence; Florida State's confidence is fragile. Clemson by three.

Notre Dame over Pittsburgh: The Irish beat up on their Big East basketball brethren. Oh wait, Pitt is leaving the Big East in hoops too? Notre Dame by 10.

Arizona State over USC: How good is Arizona State? The jury's still out after last week's loss to Illinois. The Sun Devils will win at home by six.

Alabama over Arkansas: Roll, Tide, Roll...at home by 10 over Arkansas. Is Alabama on course to face Oklahoma in the national title game?

The geography of realignment

Four, maybe five, super conferences; major television markets equating to major network deals; bringing together the best which thus stimulates new rivalries and enhances traditional ones. These are some of the reasons being floated for the crazed college athletics realignment world in which we live.

Rarely has the word "geography" or even "proximity" been used in what we've seen publicly. Let's take a look, shall we, at just how expansive some of these conferences will become if realignment becomes a reality.

ACC

The name of this conference, by the way, is the "Atlantic Coast Conference." That league will now feature Pittsburgh, from the hill country of Pennsylvania, which is roughly 380 miles from the Atlantic seaboard. The new league, with the addition of Syracuse and Pitt, will cover 10 states and a distance of 1,750 miles, north to south--the approximate mileage from Syracuse, N.Y. to Miami, FL. The good news? All of the schools are in the eastern time zone.

Big Ten

The Big Ten seems content--at least for now--to remain at 12 teams. (Don't even get me started on conference branding and the numbering system.) The granddaddy of all conferences covers nine states, two time zones, and a 1,230 mile trip from Lincoln, NE to State College, PA.

Pac 12

Let's make the leap that Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech are headed to the Pac 12. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see the wackiness of any Texas school aligned with a conference that has the word "Pacific" in its naming convention. This expanded group of schools covers eight states but spread over three time zones. And, look out for that Austin, TX to Seattle, WA trip--that journey totes up to about 2,500 miles!

SEC

The new member in the SEC will be Texas A&M, if legal issues are worked out. That means that the conference will encompass 10 states and two time zones. The trip to avoid is from Lexington, KY to College Station, TX--about 1,060 miles.

Big 12/Big East

The runt of the realignment litter is the discussion about mashing-up Big 12 leftovers with remaining Big East football schools. For the sake of discussion, let's consider the league of Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, TCU and West Virginia. (This assumes that Connecticut and Rutgers will eventually defect to the ACC, following Syracuse and Pitt.) That's eight states, two time zones and a 1,425 mile trip from Ames, IA to Tampa, FL.

What's it all mean? Not much as little to no consideration seems to be given to travel schedules for student-athletes or the former convenience for fans to drive to away games. Who's surprised? Nothing has seemed logical over these past several days of long-standing conference relationships being blown up and long-time rivalries being cavalierly dismissed. As I keep thinking, it's sad...

Conference realignment--what Kansas and Missouri should do next

If ever there was a time for two bitter rivals to come together for the greater good, it's now. The University of Kansas and the University of Missouri are on the precipice of being left behind in the Armageddon which is conference realignment--or in a conference they don't desire--if they don't act together now by approaching the Big Ten and emphasizing the following:

- "We can deliver you--the Big Ten--the market of Kansas City and this community's avidity for college sports. And, by the way, we also have the facilities (Arrowhead, Sprint Center, historic Municipal Auditorium) and infrastructure which know how to host Mens and Womens post-season conference basketball tournaments, post-season football championships and in-season neutral site games. (Please note--you need Kansas as part of this package deal in order to deliver highly rated viewership in the Kansas City market. There are many more Kansas alums living in Kansas City than Missouri alums.)
- We (Missouri) can deliver the St. Louis market.
- We offer you the longest-running football rivalry west of the Mississippi.
- We offer you the most tradition-rich basketball program in the country, thus improving the overall status and power rating of the league's basketball.
- We offer you two excellent academic institutions, both of whom are in the Association of American Universities and at no risk of being booted out. (See Nebraska, who lost their AAU status this past year.)
- We offer you geographic proximity to your other member institutions.
- We offer you the chance to easily expand to 16 teams, thus matching your rivals in the ACC and Pac 12 who are recruiting schools as we speak. Make your sweetheart deal with Notre Dame, bring us on, then select someone else who is deserving. (By the way, we strongly suggest you look no further than Iowa State, another member of the AAU, who has a spirited rivalry with Iowa, another Big Ten school.)"

Rivals make for strange bedfellows but, if KU and MU don't partner on this, we likely will see KU in a cobbled together conference which includes Big 12 castoffs coupled with the remaining Big East schools, and Missouri will go to the SEC where they'll be in a conference where their football program becomes mid-tier and the academics don't rival those of the Big Ten.

Brady Deaton, Bernadette Gray-Little, Mike Alden and Sheahon Zenger need to have Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney on a conference call as soon as possible, if it hasn't happened already.